Coordination, Innovation, Celebration

Study on Impacts of Climate Change its' Adaptation and Mitigation from Central Development Region of Nepal


Fig 1: International Graduate Conference on Climate Change and People

Abstract:   United Nations 

    Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has defined climate changes as a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.This research was carried out in Mahadevstan, Benighat, Dhusa and Gajuri VDCs of Dhading district. The study examines how farmer’s perceptions regarding Climate Change correspond with temperature and rainfall data at the nearby meteorological station of the Mahadevstan and by documents local adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change, and its variability.Total 225 respondents were randomly interviewed by making transect walk ranging from about 1000 mto 2300 m from mean sea level.There was 0.0972% per annum increases in temperature of Dhading district in January while there has been 0.051% per annum increases in temperature in the months of July between 1978-2008. The average rainfall in the month of January between 1978-2008 is 8.71mm while this has been 421mm in the month of July. The growth in the average temperature of Mahadevstan between the periods 1978-2008 has been 0.02390C per annum. The growth in the maximum temperature is around 0.120C.The correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average rainfall is found to be negative (-0.22) while that of correlation analysis between maize yield and the total annual average temperature is found to be positive (0.2136).The correlation analysis between the paddy yield and total annual average temperature and total annual average rainfall was positive with 0.244 and 0.229 respectively.The statistical analysis of the temperature data from 1978-2008 in Dhading district showed a linear trend of increasing with the increase mostly in the monsoon period. Over 30 years examined, rainfall is characterized by the large inter annual variability with a substantial decrease in the amount of rainfall over the final four years of the data. However, there is noticeable long running trend of the increasing rainfall. The responses reported by the local people on the climate variability is in the line with the climatic data records. The analysis shows that 90% respondents perceive the temperature has increased and 97% said that are experiencing unpredictable rainfall patterns since last 10 years.There is a mixed perception (agree to don’t know) in the statements like the rainfall is decreasing every year during rainy season, the rainfall is decreasing every year during winter season, the weather is becoming dry every year, the yearly rains are not supporting crop production as before, climate change has lead to crop infestation and diseases, and there is now scarcity of the fuel wood.Impacts were observed contributing to loss of the species and the local landraces, declining productivity and the yield, late monsoon, increased drought period, hail storm abnormally, wind flow pattern getting warmer, decreasing water sources, changes in flowering and fruiting time,reduction of some indigenous plant like Artemisia indica, outbreak of the diseases and the pests,rapid encroachment by the invasion like Ageratina adenophora and Ageratum species, and the emergence of the human diseases.Farmers have adopted different measures to cope with the effect. Some have cultivated different crop while others have adopted varities/ crops to shorten the growing season and also practiced the rainwater harvesting techniques. Some farmers have used the organic manure to their crops.The mulching has been practiced extensively in some VDCs. Optimum utilization of the marginal lands by planting fodder trees, fruit trees and the other grasses, forest protection by handed over the forest to the community groups are the other adaptation measures applied by the farmers.
Key words: Climate change, Impacts, Adaptation, Temperature, Rainfall, Farmers Perception

Objectives
1) To understand the local people's perception towards the climate variability
2) To verify the people's perception by analyzing 30 years data of temperature and precipitation
3) To find out the prioritize impacts of changing climate in local people's view
4) To document how local peoples are adapting to Changing Climate to maintain their livelihood
5) To identify the impacts of changing climate in overall Dhading District

Limitations
1) The meteorological data for the Dhading District were available only for 13 years.
2) The analysis was equally based on the secondary information available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal (Hydrology and meteorological data)
3) Precipitation data recorded at the Dhunibesi station was taken as the representative for the whole district under study, though it may not be accurate enough due to mountainous topography.


Methodology
Main approach used for the data collection for this study is exploratory, where the gathering data is through observing people, action and the situation and the exploring the individual attitude, preference or behaviors in informational issues of this research. The research as well as quantitative methods of the information collection and the analysis. This research was carried out in Dhading District of Central Nepal which is the lowest political and administrative unit. This site was selected according to the following criteria.

a) Meteorological station is near by the available for the measurement of the temperature and the precipitation.
b) Average rainfall area of Nepal
c) Accessible and near from Highway
d) Representing high variation in attitudinal ranges

Unit of analysis for this research purpose is basically residents within VDCs. Residents here is a person inhabiting within the political boundary of VDC for more than 10 years. Several months long initial field visit was carried out. The main objective of that visit was to become familiar with the study area such as geographical situation and the social structure. It helped to identify socioeconomic and bio-physical conditions of the community. Similarly with the frequent visits to the study area, cozy environment was created to come closer and work with local people. In- depth interviews and structured questionnaire survey were executed in the research site selected by making the transect walk. For this purpose respondents were selected considering various socioeconomic factors and attitudinal zones. In this research, total 1000 interviewees were selected. Those respondents were selected from each category of the people including of all the gender, ethnicity and education economic class and geographic location. The detail characteristics of the VDC inhabitants were collected from the respective VDC officers. Respondents selected with following "ad hoc and "snow ball' sampling technique were first examined according to caste/ethnicity, economic class, gander educational and social position and then sought for other interviewees were representation from the certain categories were realized insufficient. Sample Size calculated by using the Statistical Formula (Arkin and Colton, 1963)

n= NZ*2p (1-p)/Nd*2+Z*2P(1-p)  Where n= Sample Size
N= Total no of the Household
Z= Confidence level of 95%
P= Estimated Population Proportion
d= Erode limit of 5%

Sample Size calculated in 890 households. To assess local people's perceptions of the climate change variability, I first look at how climate data recorded at the meteorological stations evolved. (Trend and variability) and how farmers perceived these changes.Tests were undertaken for the linear trend in annual means and the seasonal means of the temperature, and the total annual and the seasonal rainfall at the Mahadevstan station. Descriptive statistics based on the summary counts of the questionnaire structure are used to provide insights into producers' perceptions of the climate change and variability. In the literature several studies have undergone the same type of the analysis. For example, Vedwan and Rhoades (2001) examine how apple farmers in the western Himalayas of India perceive climate change. This is done comparing the locally idealized traditional weather cycle with climate change as perceived by the farmers of the region using snowfall and the rainfall data to measure the accuracy of the perceptions. Hagebacket. al. (2005) assesses small- scale farmers' perceptions and the temperature data trend with the responses given by the farmers' Do you feels any changed in the weather now compared to 20 years?" They conclude that farmers' perception of the climate variability corresponds with the climatic data records The data was processed and analyzed using computer software package such as MS- Excel 2009 and SPSS 16 (Statistical Package for Social Sciences). Descriptive statistics was used for simplistic presentation. Other Sampling technique used was as follows. i) Snowball Sampling ii) Ad hoc Sampling iii) In-depth Interviews iv) Key information interview v) Secondary data collection vi) Data Collection

Introduction of Dhading District

Dhading District, a part of Bagmati Zone, is one of the seventy-five district of Nepal, a landlocked country of South Asia.The district spread from 27’40’’ E to 28’ 17’’ E and 80’ 17’’ N to 84’ 35’’ N. The district, with Dhading Besi as its district headquarters, covers an area of 1,926km² and has a population (2001) of 338,658. The mountain range "Ganesh" is the predominated mountain range located within Dhading. All of the peaks are over 7,000 meters with some approaching 8,000. The 8,000+ meter mountain "Manaslu" is clearly visible from much of Dhading, although it is located within the bounds of Gorkha. The transnational "King Prithivi Highway" connecting Kathmandu and Pokhara runs through the southern  portion of the district making for easy access too the Kathmandu valley. The road parallels the "Trishuli" River. The western border with Gorkha is bisected by the “Budi Gandaki” river and this river valley is a great entrance to the Himals of Gorkha (with views of the Ganesh range), not to mention one of the prettier river of Nepal. The towns of Salantar and Arun Ghat should get you pointed in the right direction. The district is bounded by East: Kathmandu, Rasuwa, Nuwakot. West: Gorkha, North: Rasuwa and Tibet, South: Makawanpur and Chitwan. The main rivers of the district are Trisuli river and Budhi Gandaki river. Budi Gandaki separates the district from Gorkha district. There are 25 small rivers, the main being Charoudi, Malekhu, Galtukhola, Belkhukhola, Chirandikhola, Maheshkhola, Thopal, Manukhola, Kastekhola, Mastekhola, Surgandhi, Ankhusalyantar. Besides these, there are over 1743 smaller rivers, springs and the seasonal streams.Altogether there are 50 VDCs in the district. As a whole of the mountainous country Nepal, Dhading district is characterized by the geographic diversity. The natural beauty of this area add fragrance with the presence of the 25 rivers, 1700 streams, Ganesh Himal, foundation of Ganga and Jamuna, hot springs of the Jharlang, Guptesora and Chamere cave.These are also important and remarkable sites for the development of the eco-tourism. The altitude of the area from 300 (Jogimara) to 7100m (Pawil Himal) from the mean sea level and the area falls under the subtropical, temperate and the alpine climatic zone. As a result the district has immense ecological diversity

Analysis of the Hydrological and Meteorological Data
 
 Fig: Temperature Trend of Dhading District (Source: DHM Nepal)

The analysis showed that there has been 0.097% per annum increases in temperature of Dhading district in January between the years 1978-2008. The highest and the lowest recorded temperature for January during this period was 15.8 0 C and 11.45 0 C in 1990 and 1983 respectively. Similarly, there has been 0.051% per annum increases in temperature in the month of July between 1978-2008. The average rainfall in the month of January between1978-2008 is 8.71mm while this has been 421mm in the month of July. The growth in the average temperature of Mahadevstan between the periods 1978-2008 has been 0.0239 0 C per annum. The growth in maximum temperature is around 0.12 0 C. The correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average rainfall is found to be negative (-0.22) while that of correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average temperature is found to be positive (0.2136).
 
Maize yield (kg/ha), total annual average rainfall (mm) and total annual average temperature (0C) of Dhading district (Data source: DHM and Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperates

The correlation analysis between the paddy yield and total annual average temperature and total annual average rainfall was positive with 0.244 and 0.229 respectively.Similarly, the correlation analysis between millet yield and total annual average rainfall is found to be negative (-0.127) while that of correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average temperature is found to be positive (0.242).
 

Millet yield (kg/ha), total annual average rainfall (mm) and total annual average temperature (0C) of Dhading district (Data source: DHM and Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperates)


The correlation analysis between the wheat yield and total annual average temperature and total annual average rainfall was positive with 0.211and 0. 201 respectively.Lastly, the correlation analysis between the barely yield and total annual average temperature and total annual average rainfall was positive with 0.102 and 0.144 respectively.The yield data of major cereal crops between the years 1992 to 2009 of Dhading district were analyzed. It is revealed that the per annum growth in the yield of wheat, maize, millet was 1.57, 1.32 and 1.47 percent respectively. Moreover, the yield growth of paddy was highest (3.03%) while that of barley was 2.67.


Paddy yield (kg/ha), total annual average rainfall (mm) and total annual average temperature (0C) of Dhading district (Data source: DHM and Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperates)

 

Fig:Barely yield (kg/ha), total annual average rainfall (mm) and total annual average temperature (0C) of Dhading district (Data source: DHM and Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperates

The agricultural system is totally dependent on the precipitation as the irrigation facility is only limited to the certain part of the VDCs due to the lack of the resources. Therefore the changes in the precipitation pattern arose due to the climate change has brought a decline in the agricultural production. Similarly the fluctuations in the temperature, decline in the soil moisture content, wind events and the hailstorm have also affected traditionalmode of the agricultural system. Floods and the drought also reduce the fertility of the soil because of which the agriculture yield decreases. Also new varieties of the pests and the diseases hamper the crop.

Temperature Change




Fig:Local People Perceptions on Temperature Change

The result revealed that 92% of the local people interviewed perceived term changes in the temperature while most of them 90% perceived the temperature will increased. Only two percent noticed the contrary, a decrease in the temperature.


 

Fig:Drought occurrences Perception of Local People

Precipitation Change 

Fig:Rainfall Pattern Perceptions of Local People. 


97 percent of the respondents observed an unpredictable rainfall patterns over the past 10 years and 3 percent noticed a predictable and constant rainfall patterns. Almost 72 percent of the respondents said that the incident of the drought has been increasing and link it with the ultimately and unusual rainfall patterns over the past few years. Key informants also shared their experience that in the recent year (2009) there was less or no rainfall in the monsoon season.

Local People’s Perceptions of the changes in the Agricultural Production
:
When the respondents of the different VDCs were asked to express their ideas about the agricultural production with in the past 15-20 years, majority of them were arguing on the behalf of the changed agricultural production. Where about 74% noticed significant decrease in the agricultural production, 13% for increase and the remaining 13% noticed no change in the agricultural production.Then, assuming total responses of the significant decrease in the agricultural production as 100%, I have asked with the respondents about the possible cause for such reduction, which is presented here in the figure below.The statistical record of the temperature data from the Dhading District between 1978-2008 showed an increasing trend, with the increased mostly in the monsoon periods. The trend of the annual temperature pattern is increasing showing the maximum annual variations in the temperature, whereas the winter and the pre-monsoon pattern showed not the great variations. But the trend of the monsoon temperature shows the increasing patterns. Having recorded maximum temperature in the year 1995.During the periods of the 30 years the temperature has been increasing thought this warming trend is in the line with the average annual temperature increased calculated by Shrestha et al1999, it is more than a global average by IPCC (2007). All this alarming fact shows the warming trend in the respective area. This analysis showed that the local people's perceptions appear to be the accordance with the substantial record in the region.The recorded data of rainfall from 1978-2008 showed about 85.96 percent of the rainfall occurred during monsoon. The trend of the annual rainfall pattern is increasing slightly. There is no much variation however it was recorded maximum rainfall in the year 1998 and 1999. Pre-monsoon rainfall trend is increasing significantly with showing maximum variation while the monsoon rainfall trend doesn’t show great variations but during the last few years of the study (2005 to 2007) there is the substantial decreased in the amount of the rainfall. However it was recorded maximum rainfall in the year 1999. Despite this trend, the post monsoon rainfall trend is substantially decreasing showing the great variations with the maximum rainfall in the year 1999. Similarly, the trend of the monthly average rainfall pattern of the Dhading District is increasing with the substantially increased in the months July of the monsoon periods. These strongly indicate that local people in such scenario couldn’t predict the usual rainfall pattern.


Local People’s Perceptions on the Reduction of the Agricultural Productions

From the information given by the respondents during the field observation it has been clear that the local people of the study sites believe that the climate induced disaster and the risk has the direct impact on the agriculture. Less rain and drought which is the direct climate related event, contribute large impact on reduction in the production. But the case is quite different for the landslides and the soil erosion. People consider landslide and soil erosion as the second largest factor for the decline in the agriculture production. It also correlates with the geography and landscape of the area where the people inhabited. The case of the scarcity of the irrigation water contributes the least for the reduction in the production. Maize, Millet and the Wheat are generally cultivated as the major crops which does not need any special irrigation facility, so the
rainfall if properly occur, will be sufficient for those crops. But the paddy is the major food crop which needs more water.  Irrigation was directly or indirectly affected by the change in the climatic parameters as well as risk and the disaster. In addition to the climatic factors, various other social and the political factor have some important influence to the variation in the peoples’ perceptions on the different place.  According to the respondents, another factor for the reduction in the agricultural production was the outbreaks of the various disease and the pests. Farmers notice that the outbreak of the various new disease and the pests become more and more problematic since last 10-12 years. The increase in the frequencies of the diseases especially in the rice plant in the summer time causing reduction in the crops yields. The common one is red leafof rice (Rate) and white fly (Seto putali). In the winter, it is hardto harvest mustard seeds without using pesticides at least 3-4 times because of the aphids (Lie) which were not prevalent before 12-13 years. In addition, the
disease Gabaro and Kalopoke are also increasing significantly in the maize and the wheat 49 respectively. People argue that the reason behind such increase in the outbreaks of the diseases  were the increasing temperature, change in the mist pattern, insufficient rain and the excessive use of the genetically modified crops which have very low tolerance towards disease.  According to the respondents, next factor for the reduction of the agricultural production was the geographical location and the ecological settings were the causes for such of the loss.

Perception about Climate change and Crop production 
The perception about climate change of the households also differed by the VDcs. The measures undertaken to increase crop production are the use of the organic an inorganic fertilizers and the high yielding varieties of the crops. It is also revealed that there have also been changes in the crop harvesting time.  The farmers were found aware and they have feeling of about the weather abnormality and they have faced various climate induced disasters in their locality but the variation in perception about the heard of the climate change might be due to the lack of the information and electronic media about what actually the climate change and the lack of the working organizations about the climate change at local level. The cropping pattern is different in the upper and the lower areas of Dhading. In the upper areas farmers plant potato, maize, millet and the oat while the cropping pattern in the lowland is paddy, maize, wheat and mustard while maize, millet, vegetables and potato in the upland.  The household’s perception regarding the changes in harvesting time differed by the VDCs and ranged between the 6.7 percent in Dhusa to 40 percent in Gajuri. In Benighat , the harvesting
time was late by 1 month in maize and potato while it was 1 month early in case of wheat. In the case of Gajuri, the harvesting time of potato and wheat were late by 1.5 months while only one month late in maize. In Dhusa, the harvesting time of wheat was one month early while one month late in maize. In Mahadevstan, the harvesting time of maize, wheat and paddy was late by one and half months.

Analysis of Perception Parameters 
For this analysis, the following perception variables were considered. The household were asked to use the option as strongly agree (score 1), somewhat agree (score 2), I don’t know (score 3), somewhat disagree (score 4), strongly disagree (score 5) to the following statements.

1. The environment is changing due to the human activities.
2. The winter is not becoming too cold.
3. The summer is becoming too hot.
4. The winter period is becoming short.
5. Rainfall is decreasing every year during rainy season.
6. Rainfall is decreasing every year during winter season.
7. The weather is becoming dry every year.
8. The yearly rains are not supporting crop production as before.
9. Climate change has lead to crop infestation and the diseases
10. The cost of the food crops are increasing because of climate change.
11. Climate change has lead to the decline of the forest resource.
12. There is now scarcity of the fuel wood
13. The fodder species in the forest is declining
14. The number and the types of the wild birds in your locality is decreasing.
15. The number and the types of the wild animals in your locality is decreasing.
16. There have been increase incidences of the floods during the rainy season
17. There have been increase incidences of the droughts during the rainy season.


Local People perceptions on the Changing Climate and Major Impact

Local peoples shared some experiences of climate conditions, ecosystem function and process and biological system. But most of the respondents were not aware of about climate change instead they understand only rainfall and warming system. Moreover, respondents were totally unaware about changing climate and its impact. Thus the responses given below were of respondent’s views and which needs further verification to conclude that these were due to the impacts of climate change.Local peoples' past experiences showed increasing warming days, erratic rainfall patterns,ecological variability, biological change and their adverse effects on human beings. More than 50% respondents said that warming days are increasing, rainfall patterns  is unpredictable, seasons are changing incidents of the drought is increasing, hail storm occurs abnormally, wind pattern is getting warmer, decreasing water sources, wind storm is getting stronger, changes in the flowering and fruiting time invasion of the new plant species and the reduction of the some indigenous plant. Some elder person observes the less frost in recent years, which also indicates the warmer nights as explained by the IPCC (2007). Many respondents reported that forest, grassland and the agricultural ecosystem in the study areas are in the critical condition. Local peoples revealed that different plant species were flowering and fruiting irregularly. Naspati and Apple flowering in all the seasons, aru ripens in Jestha instead of Ashad, painu flowered in Kartik (one month earlier), early fruiting of kafal, (Robus elipticus). In agriculture system they are observing some unusual phenomena: fast maturity of maize and rice, new types of the pests, short stalk of the rice and wheat.Local peoples’ responses and verification in the field provided evident of the invasion species like Ageratum species (Nilgandhe, which is not edible for the livestock). Ageratina adenophora (kalo Banmara), Chromolaenaodorata (Seto banmara) and these weeds are taken as major causes of the declining cereal production, grass coverage and the reduction of the perennial herbs. At the same time, the common herbs of the area such as Ageratum conyzoids(Setogandhe),which is edible for the livestock). Titepati, Buki flower, Salla Jhar are disappearing/decreasing from the area. Some respondents also shared experience that okhar and bakaino is regenerating in the higher altitude than that of their usual distribution. But its needs further verification to be proved.  During field observation kalo Banmara was observed at the elevation above 1500 m as observed by Lamichhane & Awasthi, 2009, and the key informants said that it is spreading in the higher altitudes yearly and the Chiple Kira (Limax) (once abundantly, found now not seen since 4-5 years in that area. i.e. 1600m altitude), which can be correlated with the warming trend in the study area. Scientific communities believe that changes in the temperature and the rainfall are creating favourable environments for the new pests, diseases and invasive species to emerge,
spread and encroach on agriculture and the forestland. (SAGUN 2009)   Agriculture are the mainstay in the study area. Most people follow traditional cultivation practices that rely on the seasonal rain water. Erratic rainfall patterns and the hailstorm contributing to the soil erosion, soil fertility loss, and the crop damage are having adverse impacts on the livelihood of most of these communities, thus increasing risk to the food security. Though drinking water is increasing due to availability of the water storage tanks and the water pipes. Local people said that they are facing more drought periods resulting decrease in the natural springs and the irrigation water. This may affects agriculture, and the subsequent food security.



Perceive Threats
 The household in almost all the VDCsperceived threat of climate change on own food production (household level food supply), health and fuel wood availability. The crop production of winter crops such as wheat and barely would be affected due to decreasing amount of the rainfall every year during winter season resulting into worsening of household food security in Mahadevstan and Benighat VDCs. The erratic rainfall pattern during the rainy season has resulted in the late plantation of paddy crop in Dhusa and Gajuri VDCs. This has effect on low yield of crop. Some household in Dhusa and Gajuri perceived threat on business while others perceived the threat on biodiversity quality and their sustainability. The variation might be due to the variation in the experiences and feelings of the people with reference to the different parameters like health, food availability, disaster etc.

Strategies Adopted the Mitigate the Effect
The farmers in some of the VDCs (Mahadevstan) have planted different varieties of the crops while very few farmers have cultivated different crops. The farmers (around 40 percent) of the farmers in Mahadevstan and Benighat have adopted varieties/crops to shorten the growing season and also practiced the rainwater harvesting techniques. The rain water harvesting techniques used are use of the water storage tanks, plastic pond, making water storage pond, cemented water storage pond and use of drip irrigation technique for efficient utilization of the scare water. Some farmers in Mahadevstan and Benighat have used organic manure to their crops. The mulching have been practiced extensively in Dhusa while to a limited extent in the other VDCs. The indigenous method applied to protect the standing crop is making status like human to protect crops from animal attack and use of wooden box and bhakari to store harvested cereals. Monitoring, forecasting and the early warming systems, practicing vegetables farming instead of the cereal crops, optimum utilization of the marginal lands by planting fodder trees, fruit trees and other grasses. These are some of the strategies adopted in Mahadevstan and Dhusa VDCs to combat with climate change. Agriculture development office of Dhading districts has provided some of the employments and the benefits to the local peoples especially for the farmers, by providing extension services, trainings, quality seeds and the varieties of the races, soil testing etc. Moreover, local communities have many groups such as Master’s group, youth clubs, conservation area management committee, vegetables farmer’s group responsible for the
community level works. 


Perceived hindrance to adapt modern technique

The household’s perception varied with regard to the hindrance to adaptation of modern techniques of combating change. Over 80 percent of the households in Mahadevstan and Benighat perceived lack of improved seed to adapt climate changes while it was 23 to 43 percent in other VDCs. The most important constraint faced by the households of all VDCs was the lack of access to irrigation water. Lack of current knowledge on adaptation methods was perceived as one of the constraints perceived by the households which ranged between 33 to 53 percent. Lack of financial resources to get modern technique and information on weather incidence was also considered the constraint in the study village


Recommendation to fight against Climate Change

Almost all the households of studied VDCs have experienced the climate induced abnormalities in their localities. The household of Mahadevstan VDC has reported that in order to fight against climate change there should be raise believes on god, public should made aware about climate change phenomena, forest should conserved, government should provide subsidies to promote alternative energy technology, water conservation, proper irrigation facility, use of the improved varieties of the seeds and application of modern agriculture technology. The household of Mahadevstan VDC reported that eco-friendly techniques should apply on industries and factories in order to prevent pollution, use of chemical fertilizers should minimize, afforestation should be promoted, seasonal crop varieties should be adopted, trees should be planted nearby houses and nearby water sources, switching from traditional farming to modern one, modification of human behavior according to the climate, more research and study should be conducted better yield of crops, field monitoring and regular observation of agriculture system should be conducted by related district level agencies and agri-experts. The households of Mahadevstan VDC have been reported that there is need of more money to combat with climate change. Along with this, forest should be conserved, public awareness about the climate change and weather incidences, organic farming, strict implementation of rules and regulations on industries and factories are recommendations by the households of Mahadevstan, Benighat and Dhusa and Gajuri VDCs.

Relationship between Climate Change and Perception of the People (30 years of data records)



Trend of Annual Temperature patterns of Dhading Districts (Data source: DHM) Nepal)

The mean annual temperature and the annual maximum is increasing in the area. The significant relation of the both means annual temperature and the mean annual maximum temperature with year increases the likelihood of the rise in the summer temperature is coming years. The mean annual temperature from 1977-1994 shows temperature of Nepal is increasing at the rate of the 0.06 0 C to 0.12 0 C per year in the most middle and the high mountains (Shrestha et.al. 1996). The mean annual temperature of the country is rising at the rate of the 0.41 0 C per decades (Nayaju et al. 2004). The temperature in the area is increasing by 0.051 0 C per annum and the rainfall pattern is also becoming erratic over the years. This has affected the agricultural production thereby threatening the food security of the mountain people. The growth in average temperature of Dhading (Mahadevstan) between the periods 1978 to 2008 has been 0.0239 0 C per annum. The growth in the maximum temperature is around 0.12 0 C.
 

Trend of Annual Rainfall Data of Dhading District (Data source: DHM Nepal)


This indicates that there is changing climate in the area. The studies conducted in Nepal projects shows that warming in all months 2 0 C or higher throughout the year (Regmi & Adhikari 2007). This is supported by the present study. The individual answerof the people towards the change in climate factors such as temperature, rainfall, snowfall showed mixture of the responses Majority of the farmers felt increase in temperature. Small number of the farmers felt the irregularity in rainfall while maximum felt decrease in rainfall. In case of the statements like the rainfall is decreasing every year during rainy season (statement 5), the rainfall is decreasing every year during the winter season (statement no.6) the weather is becoming dry every year (statement no.7), the yearly rains are not supporting crop production as before (statement no. 8), climate change has lead to crop infestation and diseases (statement no. 9), and there is now scarcity of fuel wood (statement no. 12), only the households in Mahadevstan VDCs fall under “don’t know category while the households in other VDCs agree with those statements. In case of the statements like the summer is becoming too hot (statement no. 3), the winter period is becoming short (statement no. 4), only the households in Mahadevstan agree while others do not know about it.  


Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
The relationship among the climate, crop and the animal production is complex. The success of the crop production entirely depends on the weather condition, and livestock are fundamental part of the livelihood.


Organic farming and Crop Production
 Farmers were widely practicing organic farming. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MoAC) through its district level offices recommended organic farming realizing that it helps to mitigate effects of the climate change by reducing the emission of the agricultural greenhouse gases (Khanal 2009). Most of the respondents said they use organic manure in the field. The government initiatives along with other organizations have well paid in case of motivating people and spreading awareness. The people are aware that in the long term organic farming is good choice as they had past experience of the negative impacts of the chemical fertilizer like hardening of soil and less productivity in consecutive years. Once, government promoted the extensive use of Urea. The yield data of major cereal crops between the years 1992 to 2009 of Dhading district were analyzed. It is revealed that the per annum growth in the yield of wheat, maize, millet was 1.57, 1.32 and 1.47 percent respectively. Moreover, the yield growth of paddy was highest (3.03%) while that of the barely was 2.67% .

Strategies adopted by the farmers to cope with the effect of Climate Change
The farmers have adopted different strategies to cope with the effect of the climate change. Some have cultivated different crops while others have adopted varieties/crops to shorten the growing season and also practiced the rainwater harvesting techniques. Some farmers have used organic manure to their crops. The mulching has been practiced extensively in some of the VDCs. The indigenous method applied to protect the standing crop is making status like human to protect crops from the animal attack and use of the wooden box and bhakarito store harvested cereals.


People’s perception, impact of climate change and adaptation measures applied by farmers 
The perceptions of the people varied for different climatic parameters. The perception of the majority of people was not always supported. Like in the case of rainfall, minority of the people saying there is increase in rainfall and irregularity was supported by the climatic data. But, the majority of people’s perceptions about increase in temperature was supported by the climatic data from the station. For snowfall, frost and hail, climatic data was not available so analysis was solely based on people’s perception. Like most of the villages of the developing countries, farmers depend on the monsoon rainfall for crop cultivation. The dependency makes them more vulnerable and concerned to changes in the weather pattern. For example: due to irregularity of the monsoon, millet plantation failed due to drought and they had to repeat the plantation again
this year. Hence, unusual changes and variability such as rising temperature, irregular monsoon and the erratic rainfall can lead to crop failure, ultimately decreasing the agricultural production and directly affecting the food security and the livelihood of the people.  The adaptation to changing condition has been taking place since long time; farmers are the innovators who modify their farmland as per their need. This place is heading towards organic farming along with the specialization like planting specific cash crops (potato), and diversification of the vegetables due to increasing demand and available market price and place. Water harvesting and irrigation schemes could reduce the reliance of the farmers on the rainfall. The decrease in the livestock can be compensated by raising specific livestock. The social and economic issues also plays major role in the marking adaptation decision. The information dissemination and support from the organization and the government plays a crucial role in the development and the sustainability of the small holder farmers. In Dhading, technological advancement and awareness played a greater role to bring the changes in agricultural system. However, global warming also favored for the cultivation of the different kind of the vegetables. The best adaptation measures to the changing climate will need more in depth study in the subject matter which help to choose the best alternative for the welfare of the people living here.

Conclusion and Recommendations 
There was 0.0972% per annum increases in temperature of Dhading district in January while there has been 0.051% per annum increases in temperature in the month of July between 1978-2008. The average rainfall in the month of January between1978-2008 is 8.71mm while this has been 421mm in the month of July. The growth in the average temperature of Mahadevstan between the periods 1978-2008 has been 0.0239 0 C per annum. The growth in maximum is around  0.12 0 C.The correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average rainfall is found to be negative (-0.22) while that of correlation analysis between maize yield and total annual average temperature is found to be positive (0.2136). The correlation analysis between paddy yield and total annual average temperature and total annual average rainfall was positive with 0.244 and 0.229 respectively.The statistical analysis of the temperature data from 1978-2008 in Dhading district showed a linear trend of increasing with the increase mostly in the monsoon period. Over 30 years examined, rainfall is characterized by large inter annual variability witha substantial decrease in the amount of rainfall over the final four years of the data. However, there is noticeable long running trend of increasing rainfall. The responses reported by the local people on the climate variability is in line with the climatic data records.There is a mixed perception (agree to don’t know) in statements like the rainfall is decreasing every year during rainy season, the rainfall is decreasing every year during winter season, the weather is becoming dry every year, the yearly rains are not supporting crop production as before, climate change has lead to crop infestation and diseases, and there is now scarcity of the fuel wood. Impacts were observed contributing to loss of the species and the local landraces, declining productivity and the yield, late monsoon, increased drought period, hail storm abnormally, wind flow pattern getting warmer, decreasing water source, changes in flowering and fruiting time, reduction of some indigenous plants likes Artemisia indica, outbreak of the diseases and the pests, rapid encroachment by the invasion species like Ageratina adenophora and Ageratum species , and the emergence of the human diseases.Farmers have adopted different measures to cope with the effect. Some have cultivated different crops while others have adopted verities/crops to shorten the growing season and also practiced the rainwater harvesting techniques. Some farmers have used the organic manure to their crops. The mulching has been practiced extensively in some VDCs. Optimum utilization of the marginal lands by planting fodder trees, fruit trees and the other grasses, forest protection by 
handed over the forest to the community groups are the other adaptation measures applied by the farmers


1.Government policies should therefore ensure that farmers have access to affordable credit to increase their ability and flexibility to change production strategies in response to the forecasted climate conditions.

2.Furthermore, government should improve off-farm income earning opportunities. 
3.Alternative income generation activities based on agriculture, medicinal plant cultivation and tourism can be promoted for livelihood development as income from other non-agricultural sources is more than agriculture source. 
4.Adaptation technologies together with awareness raising programs should be promoted in the area and their knowledge and skills should be enhanced to combat with climate change.
5.Indigenous knowledge and practices should be promoted on the scientific basis for further replication in the area as the people residing in the area are practicing rainwater harvesting, wooden box and bhakari to store their harvested cereal crops 
6.The more specific studies on the sartorial basis considering gender, and economic conditions of the people is urgent to validate and document the actual coping strategies to respond to unavoidable impact of the changing climate.  

References summary
1. Adams R M, Rosenzweig C, Ritchie J, Peart R, Glyer J, McCarl B A, Curry B, & Jones J (1990):   Global climate change and agriculture: an economic perspectives. Nature 345, 219-224

2. Borradaile L J, Green M. J. B, Moon L C, Robinson P J & Tail A (1977): Langtang NationalP- ark Management Plan 1977-1982. Field Document No. 7. HMG/UNDP/FAO Project NEP/72 /002, Kathmandu. PP. 273

3. Cline W R (2008): Global Warming and Agriculture March 2008: Volume 45, Number1, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/cline.

4. Darwin R, Tsigas M, Lewandrowski J & Raneses A (1995): World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptation. Report No. AER-709, US Department of Agriculture, Eco- nomic Research Service, Washington, DC.

5. FAO (2004a): Compendium of Food and Agriculture Indicators 2004-Nepal (www.fao.org/es/ess/compendium_2004/pdf/ESS_NEP.pdf accessed on Nov 29, 2005, 3 pp.

6. IPCC (1996): Climate Change (1995)- Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate cha nge: scientifictechnicalanalyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessm- ent Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change [ Watson, R. T., Zinyowera M. C, Moss R. H and Dokken D.J (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, 880 pp.

7. IPCC (2001): Climate Change (2001): Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Wats- on R T and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 398 pp

8.Khanal N R (2005): Water induced disasters: Case studies from the Nepal Himalayas. In: Landschaftsokologie and Umweltforschung 48 (Proceeding of International conference on Hydrology of Mountain Environments, Berchtesgaden, Germany, 27 Sept-1 Oct 200448) [Herrmann, A. (ed.)], Braunschweig, pp. 179-188.
9. MOPE (2004): Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Kathmandu: MoPE., Government of Nepal.

10. Nayaju R P, Jha P K, Sherchan K & Sharma D K P (2004): Initial National Communica- tion to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- mate Change (eds. P. Kuwar & G. Dahal) pp. 66-107. Ministry of Population and Environ- ment. UNEP, Kathmandu

11. Reilly J, Tubiello F, McCard B & Melillo J (2001): Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States. In: National Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States:



Researcher:
Mr. Subash Duwadi  Email:duwadi.subash@gmail.com, subash_duwadi@yahoo.com

This research was presented in 
1) Sixth National Conference on Science and Technology organized by government of Nepal in association with Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) at Everest Hotel, 2012 
1) College of Applied Sciences (CAS-N)
2) District Development Committee (DDC) of Dhanding District 
3) "Climate Change Adaptation and its Mitigation" A program organized by Centre For Environment  Education Nepal (CEEN) supported by Rafford Educational Foundation, UK in 2009. at Nepal Tourism Board (NTB)


Note: I want to present this research in other organizations as well in their programs. For this here is my address.You can just mail me and call me to this address and the phone number.

Subash Duwadi 
Environment Services Professional (MSc) 
subash_duwadi@yahoo.com, duwadi.subash@gmail.com
Mobile No: 9841173009
www.nepaleseteacher.org, www.seg.org.np



 



























Share:

0 response(s):

Post a Comment

Comment here !

Popular Posts

Blog Archive